Morgan Stanley barely pessimistic on Apple’s Q1 2023

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With decrease than regular iPhone shipments, Morgan Stanley is following consensus for Apple’s first quarter outcomes for 2023.

In a be aware to buyers seen by AppleInsider on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley thinks that Apple will report income of $122.8 billion, up from a earlier forecast of $120.3 billion. This places Morgan Stanley simply 1% up from the consensus view of $122.1 billion.

Analysts put the reframing of the quarter right down to “higher than anticipated Product shipments” for iPad and Mac, and a “slight Providers overperformance.”

For the iPhone, a 75.5M cargo forecast is down 11% year-on-year, however whereas builds level to complete shipments 4M increased than analyst estimates, the timing of builds are “very back-end loaded given the late quarter manufacturing enchancment in Zhengzhou.”

Full with an unchanged estimated iPhone ASP of $916, Morgan Stanley assumes iPhone income of $68.9B, 1% under consensus and 4% down year-on-year.

For iPad, the income forecast is now up 9% to $8.5 billion, up 18% YoY, attributable to increased shipments at 20M as a substitute of 18M. Mac income is up 12% in its estimate to $9.8B, with an analogous elevate in cargo to 7.2M models from 5.5M.

The Wearables, House, and Equipment phase might be “under seasonal” expectations as, regardless of the launch of recent AirPods and Apple Watch merchandise, “we consider Wearables are extra prone to the broader pullback we’re seeing in client electronics spending.”

Providers income is forecast to $20.9B, up 7% year-on-year.

For March, Morgan Stanley thinks that demand headwinds within the client electronics market might be felt, however Apple’s efficiency reveals “the corporate is extra immune from these challenges.” Whereas there is a discount within the March quarter income and EPS to account for decrease iPad builds and “some Mac channel destocking,” it’s considerably buoyed by anticipated increased iPhone income.

The March quarter is now estimated at $97.5 billion in opposition to Wall Road’s $98B forecast.

Regardless of being down on the quarter, the value goal continues to be $175, with the inventory nonetheless a “High Choose.”

Apple might be holding its investor name on Thursday, February 2, at 2:00 PM Pacific, 5:00 PM Jap.

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